Some Statistics on False Accusation

There has been much deliberation about Dr Christine Blasey Ford's accusation  of attempted sexual assault by Brett Kavanaugh.  If you listen to Republicans you would assume that most women who report sexual assault are confused about the attackers identity, or outright lying.  I did a little looking into the research  on the prevalence of false accusations of sexual assault and found there is a pretty wide range of estimates of how often this occurs. 

Much of the time false accusations get lumped in with cases determined to be unfounded.  That is to say a sexual assault may have occurred but There was not enough evidence to convict.  This also does not take into account any biases the investigator may have.  The investigator may discount the story of a victim who was drinking, or had a history of "partying".

The best guesses generally put the number of false accusations at 2% to 10%.  This percentage is of reported cases, and considering that only about one third of all sexual assaults are reported, the odds of a report of sexual assault being falsified are probably around 1% to 3%.  That would be for a single case from a single accuser.  If three separate reports from three different women surfaced the odds of there being  a false report shrink to almost negligible. 

All of this added together should have triggered a much more through investigation.  For there to have been any limits on time or scope was a disservice to truth and justice.  Any time a person is accused of a criminal act there should be rigorous due process before a determination of guilt is made.  Even if a person made mistakes in their youth that does not mean they should be made to pay for them all their life either. 


Brett Kavanaugh could have done what was best for the country and withdrew from consideration and offered a heartfelt apology.  Depite what he said this would not have ruined his life.  He would still be a wealthy powerful man, not having to wonder how he would pay rent of put food on the table.  Instead he chose to commit perjury which should be an automatic disqualification for any judgeship.